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Bridgewater on what China’s DeepSeek means for AI

Investing.com -- The recent release of DeepSeek-R1, a powerful new reasoning model developed by the Chinese AI lab DeepSeek, has sent ripples through the technology sector.

The model, which rivals OpenAI’s leading reasoning model, o1, has not only matched its performance on key math and logic benchmarks but has done so at a fraction of the cost.

The implications of this development are significant, raising fundamental questions about the future of AI competition, investment, and industry dynamics.

Bridgewater Associates has been closely monitoring developments in the AI space, both through its investment engine and its AI-focused research arm, AIA Labs.

The hedge fund giant views DeepSeek’s latest advancement as a clear sign that AI progress is accelerating and that open-source models are closing the gap with frontier labs like OpenAI and Anthropic.

This shift could have major consequences for the AI ecosystem, including the potential commoditization of advanced AI models, shifting competitive pressures in the chip and cloud computing markets, and the broader economic impact of AI breakthroughs.

DeepSeek has rapidly established itself as one of the top AI research labs, and its latest model represents a major step forward.

The lab has reportedly achieved efficiency gains in model architecture, reward functions, and software optimizations, allowing it to produce results that rival leading AI models but at dramatically lower costs.

According to Bridgewater, DeepSeek’s model can operate at one-twentieth the cost of OpenAI’s equivalent model.

This cost advantage is particularly notable given the increasing expenses associated with training and running large AI models.

For AI companies and researchers, DeepSeek’s efficiency gains provide an open-source alternative that is much cheaper to deploy, making high-level AI capabilities more widely accessible outside of Silicon Valley’s top AI firms.

DeepSeek’s rise poses a challenge to the dominant AI labs, particularly those relying on closed-source models for revenue. OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL ) DeepMind have so far been able to monetize their AI models by offering exclusive access through APIs and cloud services.

However, if state-of-the-art models can be replicated and open-sourced quickly, monetizing proprietary AI models could become more difficult.

Bridgewater analysts suggest that AI labs may respond by becoming more secretive with their research, limiting the amount of information they share publicly to prevent competitors from catching up.

However, with DeepSeek openly sharing much of its research, the pace of AI development outside of these major labs is likely to accelerate, benefiting startups and smaller firms that now have access to cutting-edge technology at a lower cost.

The financial markets have already reacted to DeepSeek’s emergence. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA ), which has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom due to its dominance in AI chips, saw its stock fall 17% in a single day following DeepSeek’s announcement.

Investors are increasingly concerned that AI companies will invest more in software efficiency, reducing their dependence on Nvidia’s proprietary CUDA software stack.

If firms can achieve greater AI performance without relying as heavily on Nvidia’s chips, the company’s competitive moat could be eroded.

Despite this, Bridgewater argues that in the short term, Nvidia’s fundamentals remain strong. The overall demand for compute power is still increasing, and AI applications outside of language models—such as robotics, self-driving cars, and biotech—continue to drive the need for high-performance chips.

However, DeepSeek’s advancements may push companies to accelerate efforts to develop alternative AI hardware solutions, such as Amazon’s Trainium2 and AMD’s latest AI chips.

While DeepSeek’s achievements are impressive, there is some skepticism regarding its true capabilities. Initial benchmarking suggests that the model may be overly optimized for specific tests, meaning its real-world performance could be less reliable than early reports suggest.

Additionally, there are concerns that DeepSeek may have used outputs from OpenAI’s o1 model during training, which, if confirmed, would raise questions about the model’s originality.

Another factor to consider is the accuracy of DeepSeek’s cost claims. The company has stated that its final training run cost only $6 million, a fraction of what is typically required for models of this scale.

However, Bridgewater notes that this figure likely does not include data acquisition, research, model experimentation, and salaries, which would push the total cost to at least $100 million.

Regardless, the efficiency gains remain substantial and indicate a broader trend toward more cost-effective AI development.

DeepSeek’s success accelerates the trajectory of AI development and could shorten the timeline for reaching artificial general intelligence (AGI).

Bridgewater analysts believe that the industry is moving closer to what they call the “Barnes & Noble moment”—a tipping point when AI becomes an existential factor for nearly every business, much like Amazon’s disruption of the retail sector in the late 1990s.

For investors, the implications are complex. While short-term volatility in tech stocks is likely as markets adjust to these new competitive dynamics, the broader trend remains highly bullish for AI investment.

The continued improvement of AI capabilities at lower costs expands the range of potential applications, from scientific research to industrial automation.

Additionally, the rapid pace of innovation suggests that governments and regulators may need to play a larger role in shaping AI policy to ensure ethical development and competition.

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