Oil prices up on supply disruption concerns; inflation, tariff in spotlight
Investing.com-- Oil prices rose Tuesday, adding to the stellar gains from the previous session amid concerns over Russian and Iranian oil supply.
At 08:50 ET (13:50 GMT), Brent Oil Futures gained 1.6% to $77.11 a barrel, and Crude Oil WTI Futures expiring in March rose 1.6% to $73.50 a barrel.
Both benchmarks closed around 2% higher in the previous session, after three weekly losses in a row.
Supply disruptions provide support
Shipping of Russian oil to China and India, the world's major crude oil importers, has been significantly disrupted by U.S. sanctions, while concerns over the potential for Iranian shipments to be further disrupted are also growing after President Donald Trump restored his "maximum pressure" on Iranian oil exports last week.
Additionally, Ukraine's state-run oil and gas firm Naftogaz said some of its facilities were damaged in a Russian attack.
"The energy sector in Ukraine and Russia continue to face drone assaults, while signs of tighter supplies in Russia and rising geopolitical tensions further pushed the energy complex higher. According to media reports, drones attacked a Russian oil refinery plant in the Saratov region. The affected plant is part of the Rosneft oil company known as Kreking, one of the oldest Russian oil refineries. Meanwhile, Russia also targeted Ukraine’s gas and power facilities in an overnight attack," analysts at ING said, in a note.
The market is also closely monitoring geopolitical developments in the Middle East. amid concerns that the recent Gaza ceasefire could soon unravel.
If hostilities escalate, concerns over potential supply disruptions could drive oil prices higher, as traders factor in the possibility of reduced exports from the region.
Trade tensions mount
That said, these gains have occurred after three consecutive weeks of selling as traders fretted about the potential for an extensive trade war, damaging global growth.
President Donald Trump confirmed his plan to impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports on Monday, and potential reciprocal tariffs affecting imports from several countries.
Analysts believe that fears of a global trade war have increased investor demand for oil as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.
US inflation looms large
A recent Reuters poll showed that the Fed is expected to delay further interest rate cuts until the next quarter, primarily due to concerns over rising inflation driven by recent tariff policies.
Economists who had previously anticipated a rate cut in March have now revised their expectations, suggesting a more cautious approach by the Fed in response to potential inflationary pressures, according to the poll.
Higher inflation may erode consumer purchasing power, potentially dampening demand for oil and its derivatives.
Higher interest rates in the U.S. typically strengthen the dollar and increase borrowing costs, reducing global oil demand and making oil more expensive for foreign buyers, which can lead to lower oil prices.
(Ayushman Ojha contributed to this article.)