TSCO supplies LARGE gains for me - LONG at 54.29
TSCO may not be an obvious choice for the kind of short term trading I do, but that doesn’t stop it from being literally one of the 5 best stocks (historically) for my trading system. In backtests and live trades, it has a record of 892-1. The average gain on those trades was +2.6% in an average of 11 trading days for an average daily return of almost 6x that of the S&P. Both of those are very good numbers compared to the universe of over 2000 stocks I screen. Additionally, it produces low drawdowns with my system (all time max of 7.7%) and its max allocation of capital was 10 lots, less than half of the average stock in my universe. Basically, it produces outsized daily returns, with much smaller than average capital usage and small drawdowns. That's EXACTLY what this system is aiming for.
It would not surprise me, though, if it had a couple more down days first. When stocks gap down on earnings, that's usually not a 1 day thing. But while the setup here is not ideal, I'll take that chance, considering its outlandishly good returns over time. Like in poker or blackjack, there's always a chance for a bad beat, but the odds are decidedly in my favor here.
It has also had some semi-unpleasantly long trades of late, but even if this trade produces half the normal return AND takes twice as long to pay off, it's still a far better return than the average return of the market. There is plenty of near term support from the regression channel bottom as well as recent lows at 55.10 and 51.93 too. Here's hoping TSCO pulls some profits my way and does so quickly.
Per my usual strategy, I'll add to my position at the close on any day it still rates as a “buy” and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
It would not surprise me, though, if it had a couple more down days first. When stocks gap down on earnings, that's usually not a 1 day thing. But while the setup here is not ideal, I'll take that chance, considering its outlandishly good returns over time. Like in poker or blackjack, there's always a chance for a bad beat, but the odds are decidedly in my favor here.
It has also had some semi-unpleasantly long trades of late, but even if this trade produces half the normal return AND takes twice as long to pay off, it's still a far better return than the average return of the market. There is plenty of near term support from the regression channel bottom as well as recent lows at 55.10 and 51.93 too. Here's hoping TSCO pulls some profits my way and does so quickly.
Per my usual strategy, I'll add to my position at the close on any day it still rates as a “buy” and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
Note
Point of clarification on the drawdown number (-7.7%). That represents how much my whole portfolio would have lost if TSCO was the only stock being traded. Some lots have gone down much more than that, individually. The worst peak to trough drawdown of a single lot was -28.3% in 2008 during the Great Recession (a good reminder that these are not designed to be all-in trades).
Still, though, not many portfolios or individual stock trades only dropped 8% during the tough times. During the COVID crash or the Great Recession, for example, -8% would have been a blessing given that SPY's drawdown during those periods were -34% and -56%, respectively. But that's what this trading system is all about - beating the market over the long term with MUCH less volatility. TSCO has been ACES at that over its 30 year trading history.
Anyway, I just wanted to clarify that number in the interests of full disclosure. Enjoy your evening if you read this and good luck trading!
Note
Edit - the worst single lot drawdown was in 2000 when it fell from a split adjusted 0.17/sh to around .09/sh for a 47% loss. Sorry if this interrupted your evening, but I'm a stickler for accuracy when it comes to stocks.